The Chinese Garlic Industry in 2025

The Chinese Garlic Industry in 2025: Reconstruction of Supply - Demand Patterns and New Opportunities for Industrial Upgrading

As the world's largest garlic producer and exporter, China's garlic industry in 2025 faces multiple challenges and opportunities, such as adjustments in the supply - demand pattern, a more complex international trade environment, and an upgrade in consumer demand. This article systematically analyzes the industry's current situation and development direction from aspects including production, consumption, market dynamics, and future trends.

I. Production Side: Double Growth in Planting Area and Output, with Prominent Inventory Pressure

In 2025, China's garlic planting area is expected to reach 11.88 million mu, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%; the output is expected to be 14.49 million tons, an increase of 690,000 tons year - on - year. The main producing areas are still concentrated in Shandong (accounting for 21.41% of the country), Henan (12.92%), Jiangsu (14.36%) and other provinces, and the three regions together contribute nearly 50% of the country's output.

However, the expansion of output is accompanied by high inventory levels. At the end of 2024, the national garlic ending inventory reached 2.69 million tons, a 22.27% increase compared with 2020. The risk of oversupply is expected to intensify in 2025, and the pressure of inventory digestion may continuously suppress market prices. In terms of planting technology, the growth of yield per unit area is lackluster (with an average annual increase of only 0.49%), and the growth of output mainly depends on the expansion of the planting area (with a contribution rate of 93.63%), highlighting the room for improving industrial efficiency.

II. Consumption Side: Structural Optimization and Demand Upgrade in Parallel

The domestic garlic consumption in 2025 is expected to be 11.19 million tons, among which:

- Fresh food consumption accounts for 43.07% (5.09 million tons). Driven by healthy eating, the demand for organic garlic has surged;

- Processing consumption accounts for 32.53%. Deep - processed products (such as garlic powder, garlic oil, black garlic) have expanded applications in the health care product and pharmaceutical fields;

- Seed consumption accounts for 20.73%, reflecting that farmers' willingness to expand planting is still strong.

In addition, the international market has a high dependence on Chinese garlic (accounting for 80% of the global export volume), but geopolitical risks (such as the 376.67% anti - dumping duty in the United States) and trade barriers (such as tariff adjustments in Indonesia) have exacerbated export fluctuations. In 2024, the export volume reached 2.4934 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9%, but there is insufficient price support.

III. Market Dynamics: Intensified Price Fluctuations, Testing the Resilience of the Industrial Chain

In 2024, the price of garlic showed an "N" - shaped trend. In the first half of the year, due to inventory pressure, it fell to a low of 2.85 yuan/jin. In the second half of the year, it rebounded to 4.56 yuan/jin driven by the peak export season, and at the end of the year, it fell back due to oversupply. With the listing of new garlic in 2025 and high inventory, the purchase price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2.5 - 3.5 yuan/jin in the first half of the year, and it may show a "V" - shaped trend throughout the year. The Mid - Autumn Festival, National Day, and the peak export season may boost prices briefly.

Climate risks cannot be ignored either. The main producing areas in Shandong and Henan have experienced local production cuts due to cold waves, and the El Niño phenomenon may further magnify output fluctuations.

IV. Industry Challenges: Interweaving of Oversupply and International Trade Frictions

1. Oversupply Dominates: The expansion of the planting area and high inventory form a "double pressure". The domestic market is saturated, and the recovery of catering consumption is slow. New business forms (such as live - streaming e - commerce) have limited pulling power on incremental demand.

2. Deteriorating Trade Environment: Tariff sanctions in the United States, policy adjustments of onions in India, etc. indirectly impact exports. In 2025, the export cost is expected to rise, and some enterprises face tariff compliance pressure.

3. Climbing Production Costs: Stricter standards for pesticide residues and rising labor costs squeeze profit margins, and small - scale growers have weak risk - resistance capabilities.

V. Future Trends: Technological Innovation and Industrial Upgrading in Parallel

1. Technological Innovation Drives Efficiency Improvement: Cultivating stress - resistant varieties through genetic engineering and promoting precision planting with intelligent equipment. Main producing areas such as Jinxiang in Shandong enhance added value by optimizing the variety structure (such as the brand - building strategy of "Jinxiang Garlic").

2. Deep Processing and Industrial Chain Integration: Develop functional products (such as garlic slices for reducing blood lipids, anti - cancer health products) and convenient seasonings (such as garlic paste, ready - to - eat garlic granules), and extend the industrial chain to the pharmaceutical and cosmetics fields.

3. Green Development and International Layout: Promote organic planting (reducing chemical fertilizer use by more than 30%) and expand into emerging markets such as the Middle East and the European Union, and use free trade agreements to reduce tariff barriers.

4. Rise of Personalized Demands at the Consumption End: Launch small - packaged fresh garlic and garlic products dedicated to pre - prepared dishes for young groups to meet the dual needs of health and convenience.

VI. Case Enlightenment: The Successful Experience of the Jinxiang Model

Jinxiang County in Shandong Province has achieved a breakthrough through "brand building + technology empowerment + industrial chain integration":

- Brand - building Strategy: Participate in international exhibitions and hold garlic cultural festivals to enhance the global popularity of "Jinxiang Garlic";

- Technology Investment: Introduce intelligent sorting equipment and low - temperature storage technology to extend the fresh - keeping period and reduce losses;

- Deep - processing Expansion: Develop high - value - added products such as garlic oil extraction and black garlic fermentation, and increase the processing conversion rate to 35%.

This model provides a transformation model of "from output expansion to value improvement" for other producing areas.

Conclusion

The garlic industry in 2025 is at a critical stage of transformation from extensive expansion to refined operation. Enterprises need to respond to oversupply and trade risks through technological innovation, market diversification, and quality upgrading, and at the same time, seize new opportunities in healthy consumption and industrial integration. At the policy level, it is necessary to strengthen the construction of the industry early - warning mechanism and optimize support measures such as export tax rebates to help the industry achieve sustainable development. In the future, China's garlic industry is expected to occupy a higher - end position in the global value chain and transform from a "big output country" to a "strong quality country".